Walking hand in hand: Bush’s dalliances with OPEC have peacefully skipped issues of oil price controls and production increases

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A recently released policy brief by the Centre for Economic Research at the rating agency CRISIL sums up the short term outlook for oil prices: “…as the weeks pass, the likelihood of a downward correction anytime soon seems to be getting more and more remote…the world economy clearly has to begin preparing for a scenario in which prices continue to climb to levels that compare only with distant memories”.

In the longer run, it would be foolish to invoke Keynes and proclaim that we are all dead. In fact, without a coherent policy to ensure oil and energy security in the long run, it is profits and growth that could be dead. And India could once again be consigned to the roster of those chronic cases that have promised to bloom and then withered away.

Three factors make India particularly vulnerable to volatility in oil supplies and prices. First, India depends a lot on West Asia (or Middle East as it is more fashionably called) for oil supplies. More than two-thirds of India’s oil imports come from that politically volatile and unstable region. What if the conflict in Iraq spreads to neighbouring states? What if Islamist jihadis cause such mayhem that supplies from the world’s largest producer and exporter, Saudi Arabia, are disrupted? What if the US goes for a regime change in Iran? Frightening scenarios no doubt. But as P. Sugavanam, director (finance) of Indian Oil – India’s largest company in terms of revenue – ventures to say: “Commercial compulsions have always driven the oil business there since it was discovered, and commercial compulsions will continue to be decisive. Even if there are upheavals, oil supplies would not be disrupted for long – long enough for India to use its strategic reserves”. He adds, “there is nothing much that India can do about it and in any case, India will not be the only country to suffer.” However, in what could be a bold or foolish move (or both) depending on the outcome, petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyer is stitching together long term deals with countries like Iran. According to him, cooperation within Asian countries is the key to long term energy security.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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