Black Gold, Black motives, Black Curse!

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The genesis of 9/11 can be clearly traced back to the ‘oil-soaked’ foreign policy of the US. In a Faustian pact, it ignored the excesses of the brutal Saudi regime. It ignored the virulent spread of fanatic Islam to countries Pakistan and Indonesia, primarily financed by the petro-dollars of Saudi Arabia. It ignored the shenanigans of Pakistan. US even launched negotiations with the barbaric Taliban regime of Afghanistan for a oil pipeline that would flow from oil and gas fields in central Asia to Pakistan. The chickens had to come home to roost.

The traumatic events of 9/11 too were not sufficient to change the foreign policy track of the US-oil and gas supplies at any cost. Virtually no effort was made to rein in Pakistan, a nation that everybody now acknowledges as the fountain head of Islamic Terror. Instead, the Bush administration cooked up allegations of nuclear proliferation by Iraq and invaded the country in 2003. Iraq is now destroyed and the events after the arbitray invasion explain why oil touched an all-time high of $115 per barrel on April 17, 2008!

More alarming are noises coming out of Washington that invading intransigent Iran was a good idea. Global markets often work by assuming worst case scenarios and as far as oil is concerned, nothing could be worse than Iran being invaded. No wonder, despite no precipitate fall in the supply of oil, prices have touched such high levels. Global markets also know that a Russia controlled by Putin will not offer any cheap gas to US, nor will Venezuela under Chavez.

There is worse in store. China has emerged as a serious rival when it comes to tying up access to oil reserves. China is pally with three nations on the black list of US – Sudan, Iran and Myanmar. All three have oil and gas. China is very friendly with dictatorial regimes in Central Asia and Nigeria because they have oil and gas. And when US preaches to China about not being friendly with cruel and dictatorial regimes, all the later has to do is point out the strategic alliance between US and Saudi Arabia.

In the first few decades of the 20th century, US consistently elbowed out UK as the nation with the best access to oil and gas reserves. Will China do a repeat in the first few decades of the 21st Century? The Chinese are familiar with their history lessons. Do they remember that when Japan wanted equal access to natural resources for its rapid industrialization, it was annihilated in World War II?

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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